Currency trading: AUDUSD - Saturday 10/2/18

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Follow the idea:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/4gpI3Eek-Saturday-10-2-18/


Will enter mock trade – short.

I will enter @ .772 – because look at the wick of the recently closed January month and the recently closed week ending Saturday 10th February 2018, the body bottom closed
I will exit @ .758 – because at .75 is a strong support, to go below .75 it needs serious flaw in AU economy or a serious goodness in US economy which neither is present atm or will foreseeably present in coming week or month and the body of 2 tweezer bottoms end comfortably at .757
So my exit should be safely at .758
Technical Indicator - Monthly
EMA 7, 12, 50.
faster moving > prone to false curves
50 is already above 7 AND 12.

Uptrend (7 and 12) are both flatlining.

MA 7,12,50.
Uptrend (7 and 12) are both flatlining.

BB sd 2
BB is squeezing.

>Conclusion:
 it supports EMA and MA analysis – a change of trend is imminent.

BB sd 1
BB is squeezing even more tightly.

>Conclusion:
 it supports previous analysis – a change of trend is imminent d.

Parabolic SAR
- to show if a trend has ended.

Still in the trending up
> It is lagging

Stochastic
- to show if a trend is going to end.
- if >80 = overbought
- if <20 = oversold
>>at 80 = overbought
??? How to calculate – later

Going up towards 80.

> That means closing to overbought territory.
?! is this an early indicator it might bounce off?!?

RSI
- to show if a trend is going to end.
- If >50 = overbought
- If <50 = oversold
>> at 50 = overbought
???? How to calculate – later

50

>Conclusion:
overbought.
?! is this an early indicator it might bounce off?!?

ADX
- To find out if the market is ranging or trending
- Ranging = low = 20
- Trending =>
-- going up to 50 = going up
-- going down from 50 = declining
>> declining and at 20 =>> ranging

This week was: 20.

>Conclusion:
ranging and declining trend.
?! is this an early indicator it might bounce off?!?


MACD



Declining trend could be imminent. But this is not reliable early indicator.


Technical Indicator – Weekly
EMA 5,7,12.
All 3 have turned downward, although 5 and 7 are still top.

MA 7,12,50.
Idem

Conclusion
Declining trend is imminent, although this is not a reliable leading indicator.

BB sd 2 and BB sd 1

No squeezing, normal width band and in the middle of the upper band with wick touching middle line.
>Conclusion:
 No take.

Parabolic SAR
- to show if a trend has ended.

Still in the trending up.

> It is lagging

Stochastic
- to show if a trend is going to end.
- if >80 = overbought
- if <20 = oversold
>>at 80 = overbought
??? How to calculate – later

Has reached 80, lines have crossed downwards and @ 50.

> Monthly: That means closing to overbought territory.
> Weekly: Is already overbought wil decline.
?! is this an early indicator it might bounce off?!?

RSI
- to show if a trend is going to end.
- If >50 = overbought
- If <50 = oversold
>> at 50 = overbought
???? How to calculate – later

50

>Conclusion: Monthly overbought.
> Weekly: is already overbought.
?! is this an early indicator it might bounce off?!?

ADX
- To find out if the market is ranging or trending
- Ranging = low = 20
- Trending =>
-- going up to 50 = going up
-- going down from 50 = declining
>> declining and at 20 =>> ranging

Monthly: This week was: 20.
Weekly: 12

>Conclusion:
ranging and declining trend

MACD
Declining trend could be imminent. But this is not reliable early indicator.

Technical Indicator – DAILY

MACD

to watch for:
potential reversal upward – perhaps during AU time  - to possibly .785.
Therefore, ensure come in possibly during early London at .772 to avoid reversal nerve.
But it is still in downward trend.

EMA and MA 5, 7, AND 12
Have declined.

BB 20 SD 2 AND 1
The squeeze has started to EXPLODE.

>Watch out next week for an explosion.

STOCH 20
- to show if a trend is going to end.
- if >80 = overbought
- if <20 = oversold
>>at 80 = overbought
??? How to calculate – later

Has reached 20, lines have crossed downwards and @ 20.

> Monthly: That means closing to overbought territory.
> Weekly: Is already overbought wil decline.
> Daily: at oversold
?! is this an early indicator it might bounce off?!? But with declining trend is still at early stage, it will temporarily upward reverse and continue downwards with fundamental drive.

RSI
- to show if a trend is going to end.
- If >50 = overbought
- If <50 = oversold
>> at 50 = overbought
???? How to calculate – later

30

>Conclusion: Monthly overbought.
> Weekly: is already overbought.
>Daily: almost oversold
?! is this an early indicator it might bounce off?!? But with declining trend is still at early stage, it will continue downwards.


ADX
- To find out if the market is ranging or trending
- Ranging = low = 20
- Trending =>
-- going up to 50 = going up
-- going down from 50 = declining
>> declining and at 20 =>> ranging

Monthly: This week was: 20.
Weekly: 12
Daily: declining


with declining trend is still at early stage, it will temporarily upward reverse and continue downwards with fundamental drive.
To avoid temporarily reversal:
I will enter @ .772 – because look at the wick of the recently closed January month and the recently closed week ending Saturday 10th February 2018, the body bottom closed
I will exit @ .758 – because at .75 is a strong support, to go below .75 it needs serious flaw in AU economy or a serious goodness in US economy which neither is present atm or will foreseeably present in coming week or month and the body of 2 tweezer bottoms end comfortably at .757
So my exit should be safely at .758



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